Description : Model Bounds : Model Outputs : Example Output : Future Work : Acknowledgements : Download : References : Contact

Description: The flux models described here are purely empirical specifications of the ion flux and the electron flux at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) in the energy range ~1 eV to ~40 keV. The models are based on a total of 82 satellite-years of observations from the Magnetospheric Plasma Analyzer instruments on Los Alamos National Laboratory satellites at GEO. These data are assigned to a fixed grid of 24 local-times and 40 energies, at all possible values of Kp or solar wind electric field (-vBz). Bi-linear interpolation is used between grid points to provide the ion flux and the electron flux values at any energy and local-time, and for given values of geomagnetic activity (proxied by the 3-hour Kp index ) or solar-wind electric field. The Kp version of the model also provides flux values for given values of solar activity (proxied by the daily F10.7 index). Initial comparison of the electron flux from the model with data from a Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II (CEASE-II), also located at geosynchronous orbit, indicate a good match between model and observations during both quiet and disturbed periods. The model is available for download and can be modified to suit user-requirements.

Kp version (example fluxes)

Figure 1. Plots showing example slices through the model dataset. The left panel shows the mean electron flux as a function of energy and local-time, at Kp=2. The right panel shows the mean ion flux as a function of energy and local time, at Kp=4. Bi-linear interpolation is used to provide off-grid flux values. The user is also supplied with the standard deviation from the mean, percentile fluxes, and a coarse parametization of the effects of solar-activity (F10.7 index).

Figure 2. Locations of 419 selected satellites on orbit at GEO. Alternate satellites are coloured blue/yellow for clarity.

Figure 3. Binning scheme for -vBz model.

Model Bounds: Any energy from ~1 eV to ~40 keV. Any local time (0-24 LT). Any geomagnetic activity (Kp model) or solar-wind electric field (-vBz model).

Model Outputs: For the selected conditions of geomagnetic activity (Kp index), energy (eV) and Local Time (LT), the model provides the user with:

- Mean
- Standard Deviation
- 5th Percentile
- 25th Percentile
- Median (50th Percentile)
- 75th Percentile
- 95th Percentile

Example Output: Model results for Kp=7-, Energy =5.28 keV, LT=7.00. The model can easily be modified and called for any set of (Kp, E, LT) values.

Future Work: Future model development is planned in two areas:

1. Geomagnetic/Solar Conditions - While Kp is a good proxy for general geomagnetic activity, it would be useful to be able to drive the model with upstream solar-wind conditions, such as the solar-wind electric field (-v

DONE!

2.(a) Extending the model in spatial extent (inwards and outwards of GEO) (in progress - coming soon!);

2.(b) Extending the energy range of the model (upwards from 40 keV) (in progress - coming soon!);

2.(c) Extending the model to consider geomagnetic latitude (off-equator) effects.

3. Add tool to calculate total dose over a specific time period

4. Add tool to predict spacecraft-surface charging likelihood (derived from LANL/MPA data).

5. Investigate how to include time-history into the model to improve flux forecasts (Note: this will be HARD!)

Acknowledgements: Thanks to all those who contributed to the model, particularly Michelle Thomsen (LANL), my mentor during my time as a postdoc at LANL, and Vania Jordanova(LANL), who first suggested I should work on such a model. Thanks are also to Mike Henderson (PI for the LANL/MPA dataset), Joe Borovksy (for helpful conversations), Dave Pitchford (for access to the CEASE-II data, and boundless hospitality), Jo Denton (for help with figures and everything else), and Dave Hartley (for coffee, beer, and science...not necessarily in that order).

Thanks also to Jonny Rae, Clare Watt, and Colin Forsyth for helpful discussions when I first presented the model during a visit to Mullard Space Science Laboratory in January 2015..

I also wish to thank all at ISR-1/LANL who have contriubuted to the MPA dataset over the years.

Since Autumn 2017 work on the model has been funded by a NASA-Living With a Star (LWS) award : 80NSSC17K0682

Download: A tar-ball of the latest version of the models can be found below:

MODEL | COMMENTS | DATE |

GEO Kp Model v0.1 (GEO) | First version | April 2015 |

GEO Kp Model v1.0 (GEO) | Minor bug fixes from original v0.1 model | June 2016 |

-vBz Model v1.0 (GEO) | First version | June 2016 |

Kp Model v1.0 (6-20 R_{E}) (coming soon) | First version (under review) | 8th November 2018 |

The model is written in FORTRAN 77, is freely available for download (GNU General Public License v3), and can be modified as required. If you are curious to know why I used FORTRAN then feel free to spend some quality time here :-)

References: A full description of the models can be found in the following papers:

M. H. Denton, M. G. G. T. Taylor, J. V. Rodriguez, and M. G. Henderson,

Extension of an empirical electron flux model from 6 to 20 Earth radii using CLUSTER/RAPID observations,

Space Weather (under review), 2018.

A pre-print .pdf version of the manuscript will be available shortly...

M. H. Denton, M. G. Henderson, V. K. Jordanova, M. F. Thomsen, J. E. Borovsky, J. Woodroffe, D. P. Hartley, and D. Pitchford,

An improved empirical model of electron and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit based on upstream solar wind conditions,

Space Weather, 14, 511–523, doi:10.1002/2016SW001409, 2016.

A pre-print .pdf version of the manuscript can be found here.

M. H. Denton, M. F. Thomsen, V. K. Jordanova, M. G. Henderson, J. E. Borovsky, J. S. Denton, D. Pitchford, and D. P. Hartley,

An empirical model of electron and ion fluxes derived from observations at geosynchronous orbit,

Space Weather, 13, 233–249, doi:10.1002/2015SW001168, 2015.

A pre-print .pdf version of the manuscript can be found here.

Contact:

Feel free to contact me regarding the model.

MICK DENTON

Space Science Institute

4750 Walnut Street (Suite 205)

Boulder

CO 80301

USA

Email: mdenton(at)spacescience.org

I also keep a mailing list to notify people about new versions of the model, etc. If you would like to be added to the list, simply drop me an email.

Description : Model Bounds : Model Outputs : Example Output : Future Work : Acknowledgements : Download : References : Contact

Last update: 8th November 2018.